Early Over/Under Odds for Wins

At The Ralphie Report, we love to look at the odds and if the deal seems sweet enough, we will throw down some coin...all legally of course in Vegas. Lets just say Kansas against the spread was very friendly to one of us last year. Throughout the year, we will definitely have our Friday odds analysis for the Buffs and other teams. With that being said, if any of you listened to the Herd on ESPN Radio yesterday, he was stoked, like us, about the release of win over/unders and a bunch of other gambling related material. Now we get to see what the experts in the casinos think!

I was excited until I saw that Vegas Insider predicts the Buffs to be 10th in the Big 12 and winning only 5 1/2 games. Only Baylor and Iowa State have lower expectations. Even Kansas State is picked to be better than the Buffs. Looking at Kansas State's schedule, they are only guaranteed 4 wins in my opinion - North Texas, Montana State, Louisiana-Lafayette and Iowa State but they are slated to win 6 1/2 games? Vegas must be very worried about the Buffs schedule. We will still predict seven wins with some light at the end of the tunnel towards the end of the year. I think the Kansas and/or Florida State games are going to be pivotal in getting to that 7 or 8 win season. Oklahoma is picked to win 10 games behind only USC with 10 1/2 and tied with Florida and Ohio State. Vegas is holding Georgia at 9 wins which is most people's National Champion. Below is the wrap up of the win expectations for the Big 12.

Team	Expected 2008 victories
Oklahoma	10
Missouri	9 1/2
Texas	9
Texas Tech	9
Kansas	8
Texas A&M	7
Oklahoma State	7
Nebraska	7
Kansas State	6 1/2
Colorado	5 1/2
Baylor	3 1/2
Iowa State	3 1/2

In terms of favorites to win the National Title, USC is the top choice at 3:1, Florida is 5:1 and Oklahoma is 6:1. Colorado is 100:1 along with Kansas State and Oklahoma State. Baylor and Iowa State were not on the board.

Team	Odds
Oklahoma	6:1
Missouri	10:1
Texas	10:1
Kansas	25:1
Texas Tech	50:1
Texas A&M	75:1
Nebraska	75:1
Colorado	100:1
Kansas State	100:1
Oklahoma State	100:1

If I were a betting man and I am, I would take the over on the Buffs. I am guessing that the line will move to 6 1/2 due to all of the optimistic press the Buffs have been getting over the past 6 months. I would take the under on Kansas State at 6 1/2 games (see above), under on Baylor at 3 1/2 (probably a harder schedule than the Buffs), over 9 for Texas Teach (nice cupcake non- conference and home vs. Texas), Kansas on the under 8 (I have a hunch), under on Oklahoma State winning 7 games and I would probably layoff Oklahoma, Texas, Nebraska and Texas A&M as those look pretty legitimate. Most confident picks would probably be Baylor, Kansas State and Colorado in that order. And at 50:1, don't you have to put down a hundo on Texas Tech? I was just talking to a work buddy and said, "Tech always finds a way to blow a couple of games that they shouldn't (see CU and OSU last year)" but they also beat...I mean manhandled Oklahoma last year (the game was never close as the score seems to show). It will probably come down to the game in Norman next year but still at 50:1 and that spread offense, thats a good value.